What these election results mean.
These results assure BJP of solid support in four states and these trends are likely to be unchanged in parliamentary elections as well. BJP will also do well in Gujrath undoubtedly and will get crucial seats in Maharashtra and Punjab with their firm allies Shiv Sena and Akalis. They will also pick up some seats in Karnataka. So the real battle to reach 180 seats and beyond will be fought in essentially two states of UP and Bihar. BJP must therefore now concentrate all its positive energies in these two states where unfortunately it lacks the local leaders of repute in these two crucial states. Modi therefore will have to work his charisma in these two states. Also these two states will have many cornered fights with regional parties getting their share of seats.
The biggest talking point is the stunning success of AAP. It has to be welcomed. Will this be the new turning point in Indian politics? Hard to tell right now, but hopefully the trend will continue and the party can put up credible candidates all over India in the general elections though they do not have enough time to probably to do this. AAP’s role as main opposition party in Delhi will be watched with interest surely.
For Congress it is a deserving loss for its non-performance. The party is rudderless. It would be in the long term interest of the party to dump the First Family and look for new leadership. It needs to strengthen itself organizationally in all states of India to get back as a serious contender for power. UPA –II had a great chance of consolidating its position but the arrogance of the leadership has undone all good work of UPA-I.
So what can be the scenario post 2014? If BJP can get around 180 and this is a must, they can count on the support of AIADMK which can bring in 30 MPs, TMC which can get the same number probably, BJD that can bring in about 15 and SS and Akalis together can bring in another 20. That will be sufficient to form a stable government. It will also mean just 5 allies in a coalition and then it would be a coalition that may be easier to manage than a coalition of 15 parties! The jockers in the pack are of course Mamta and Amma to an extent. For that Jagmohan Reddy may provide some insurance!
If BJP is halted at 150 then a Third Front government with Congress and Left as supporting parties can be the possible scenario. This will be the most undesirable thing to my mind.
So BJP has its work cut out clearly now. Try and concentrate on around 220 constituencies and try and win the maximum!